I always enjoy looking back at how the experts said the market was going to do, and compare that to how the market actually did. Looking back shows me that when it comes to investing, my guess is as good as anyone else's.
We now know that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close out the year at 10,717.50, ending the year down 0.6%. It is the first down year for the Dow since 2002.
Here were some of the guesses made by Fox News' "experts" on Dec. 30, 2004:
Rob Stein, Astor Asset Management, wins the My Mountain Best Guesser Award, for saying that the market will end, "Slightly lower than were it is here (at years end 2004)."
Jordan Netburn, Axiom Capital Management:
"14,000 area."
Tom Adkins, Commonconservative.com:
"I thought I was going to be the crazy man here saying 13 or 14, but I feel the same way." (The Dow at 13,000 or 14,000.)
Brenda Buttner, Fox News Business Reporter:
"With any significant tail winds, which we will get, the market is bound to go up at least 10% this year."
Why is Brenda Buttner, a reporter, giving advice on how the market will perform? Shouldn't she be reporting someone else's guesses? She is a reporter after all. It's proves out that some reporters don't know as much as they would have you believe.
And here is (or was) another pundit site, maintained by Business Week. Feel free to browse it yourself. It has proven to me once and for all that if 66 pundits make a guess, that maybe one of them will get it right.
And now the slate will be wiped clean as the market enters 2006. All guesses will be good again. Everyone has another shot at being next year's My Mountain "Best Guesser."
My own guess: the DJIA will close 2006 at 11,208. I predict that some unexpected good news will propel the market forward in the final quarter, after a tremendous amount of uncertainty and volitility during the middle of the year.
Enter your guess in the comment field and we'll compare results next year. Same bat time. Same bat channel.
I know that I'm dumping on the pundits here. While its true that their guesses on the direction of the market are as good as yours and mine, it is absolutely a good idea to use these people to educate yourself. But before you rush out and buy any more Suzy Orman tapes, consider that these people are giving advice to potentially millions of people, all at once, without considering each person as an individual. Suzy Orman is a good educator, but she's never sat in your house and asked you what's important to you, has she?
My service to you today is to remind you that you are an invididual. Do not be a lemming, ready to jump off a financial cliff just because you heard Crazy Cramer ranting on MSNBC. If you believe you need financial advice, then I suggest you take that need seriously. Before playing "Suzy Says" with your financial future, find someone locally who can help. Sure you'll pay a little for the service. Afterall, you pay your doctor to keep you healthy, so why not an advisor to keep you financially healthy? The process is simple: a) speak to your friends to get a short list of trusted financial advisors, and b) interview those advisors, and c) select the one that takes the time to "discover" what is truly important to you. Whether its leaving an inheritance, protecting your spouse, planning for retirement, buying a home, saving for college, leaving a donation for your church, protecting assets from Medicaid, starting a business, choosing between permanent or term insurance, buying long term care insurance or a drug coverage supplement, health insurance, simplifying finances, mitigating risk, long term investing, buying a car-- whatever the hell it is, if its important enough for you to worry about, then its important enough to seek some professional guidance.
Have a happy and prosperous New Year!
Saturday, December 31, 2005
The Non-Global Warming Hoax
Is global warming a hoax? That's what many people, including author Michael Crichton, would have you believe.
But sadly, when one looks objectively at the facts, the conclusion is overwhelmingly clear -- humans are having a tremendous impact on the weather, as further evidenced today by the formation of the record 27th named storm in the Atlantic, TS Zeta. Study the objective facts here (it won't take you long). Then if you see Michael Crichton, you can explain to him just how dangerous it is for him to be hoaxing about a hoax.
But sadly, when one looks objectively at the facts, the conclusion is overwhelmingly clear -- humans are having a tremendous impact on the weather, as further evidenced today by the formation of the record 27th named storm in the Atlantic, TS Zeta. Study the objective facts here (it won't take you long). Then if you see Michael Crichton, you can explain to him just how dangerous it is for him to be hoaxing about a hoax.
Friday, December 30, 2005
To be a fly on the wall
This interesting piece appeared recently. The Pentagon wants to be the fly on the wall, or at least a butterfly. They recently announced a nano-air vehicle (NAV) program to develop an unmanned plane no larger than 7.5 centimeters in any direction, a maximum weight at takeoff of 10 grams—about the heft of a ballpoint pen—and a top speed of up to 10 meters per second.
How long until such nano-craft will be equipped with little nano-bullets and nano-missles? Not long, I'd wager.
Yet, as history has shown, we can't possibly hope to overcome our enemies by simply developing more creative ways to kill. We can win battles, but not a lasting peace.
So whats the answer? The answer is simply to do good in the world. Naive? Perhaps, but read for yourself how Pakistani's now hold America in the highest regard than at any time since 9/11, simply because we were there to help following the devastating earthquake that racked the country in 2005. Don't miss the fact that this editorial is from Rush Limbaugh's beloved Heritage Foundation thinktank. And especially don't miss their conclusion that:
It is "plainly a mistake to overemphasize the use of U.S. 'hard power' when 'soft power' can also fight terrorism/radicalism, and support the development of political, economic and social freedom."
Evil is evil, whether committed by Bin Laden or Bush.
Evil is evil, wether committed invisibly or in front of TV cameras.
That America will reap what it sows in the world is wisdom long known throughout the ages. If as much ingenuity and resource was humbly funneled toward fighting disease and hunger as is being devoted to creative killing (like tiny little flying spy aircraft), imagine what our world could be like.
America is at its best when it is doing good in the world, rather than evil in secret. America would be wise to listen to the Pakistani people and adjust its behavior throughout the Muslim world accordingly.
How long until such nano-craft will be equipped with little nano-bullets and nano-missles? Not long, I'd wager.
Yet, as history has shown, we can't possibly hope to overcome our enemies by simply developing more creative ways to kill. We can win battles, but not a lasting peace.
So whats the answer? The answer is simply to do good in the world. Naive? Perhaps, but read for yourself how Pakistani's now hold America in the highest regard than at any time since 9/11, simply because we were there to help following the devastating earthquake that racked the country in 2005. Don't miss the fact that this editorial is from Rush Limbaugh's beloved Heritage Foundation thinktank. And especially don't miss their conclusion that:
It is "plainly a mistake to overemphasize the use of U.S. 'hard power' when 'soft power' can also fight terrorism/radicalism, and support the development of political, economic and social freedom."
Evil is evil, whether committed by Bin Laden or Bush.
Evil is evil, wether committed invisibly or in front of TV cameras.
That America will reap what it sows in the world is wisdom long known throughout the ages. If as much ingenuity and resource was humbly funneled toward fighting disease and hunger as is being devoted to creative killing (like tiny little flying spy aircraft), imagine what our world could be like.
America is at its best when it is doing good in the world, rather than evil in secret. America would be wise to listen to the Pakistani people and adjust its behavior throughout the Muslim world accordingly.
Punishing those who report crimes.
It is a very sad and troubling day for America when the highest officials in our land can break the law, then then turn around and punish those who would reveal their crime.
But that is exactly what is happening in George Bush's post-democratic American dictatorship.
In its initial report on President Bush's illegal spying program, The New York Times said nearly a dozen current and former officials had agreed to discuss the program on condition of anonymity, because of their concerns about the operation's legality and oversight.
Now, The U.S. Justice Department is investigating who disclosed that a secret and illegal domestic eavesdropping operation approved by Bush, in clear violation of the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) .
Americans, don't let anyone scare you out of your freedoms. There are ways to deal with the world's problems without decending further into an Orwellian police state.
But that is exactly what is happening in George Bush's post-democratic American dictatorship.
In its initial report on President Bush's illegal spying program, The New York Times said nearly a dozen current and former officials had agreed to discuss the program on condition of anonymity, because of their concerns about the operation's legality and oversight.
Now, The U.S. Justice Department is investigating who disclosed that a secret and illegal domestic eavesdropping operation approved by Bush, in clear violation of the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) .
Americans, don't let anyone scare you out of your freedoms. There are ways to deal with the world's problems without decending further into an Orwellian police state.
Thursday, December 29, 2005
"I've fallen, and I can't get up!," says U.S. Dollar.
Brace yourself.
"The long-awaited downside correction in the U.S. dollar is now underway, and appears likely to continue for the near-term due to extreme institutional and retail investor sentiment readings and unmet minimum measuring objectives based on the greenback's breakdown earlier this week," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research.
Read more about the significant, potentially devastating problems that are now being rought on Americans by the mishandling of the U.S. economy, mounting national debt, unchecked deficit spending, and historic trade deficits.
Now might be a great time to dump your dollars for the Yen, or even Gold and Silver. Unless we as a nation get a handle on this spending spree, expect inflation to begin eating away at the value of your retirement funds.
Since I wrote about the U.S. debt topping the $8 Trillion mark on October 13, it has ballooned an incredible $188 BILLION dollars, and is accellerating, with no end in site. Why does Mr. Bush insist on bankrupting this country while wanting to pass huge tax gains on to rich people who don't want them!? The good and wealthy people at ResponsibleWealth.org understand, in ways that Mr. Bush doesn't, why it is necessary to set an equitable tax strategy.
Where are our priorities? How can we have the national will to bring freedom to Iraq, but not health insurance to our nations children? With the money that has simply been wasted in Iraq, we could have solved the problem of homelessness in America.
If you are an American will you do me a favor --- will you please vote in the next election? 40% of eligible U.S. voters did not cast a vote in the last election! My hope for America is that this lost 40% is where our national moral integrity is residing, and that they can be seduced away from their television sets long enough to tilt this country dramatically toward a caring society.
Hey, I can dream, can't I?
"The long-awaited downside correction in the U.S. dollar is now underway, and appears likely to continue for the near-term due to extreme institutional and retail investor sentiment readings and unmet minimum measuring objectives based on the greenback's breakdown earlier this week," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research.
Read more about the significant, potentially devastating problems that are now being rought on Americans by the mishandling of the U.S. economy, mounting national debt, unchecked deficit spending, and historic trade deficits.
Now might be a great time to dump your dollars for the Yen, or even Gold and Silver. Unless we as a nation get a handle on this spending spree, expect inflation to begin eating away at the value of your retirement funds.
Since I wrote about the U.S. debt topping the $8 Trillion mark on October 13, it has ballooned an incredible $188 BILLION dollars, and is accellerating, with no end in site. Why does Mr. Bush insist on bankrupting this country while wanting to pass huge tax gains on to rich people who don't want them!? The good and wealthy people at ResponsibleWealth.org understand, in ways that Mr. Bush doesn't, why it is necessary to set an equitable tax strategy.
Where are our priorities? How can we have the national will to bring freedom to Iraq, but not health insurance to our nations children? With the money that has simply been wasted in Iraq, we could have solved the problem of homelessness in America.
If you are an American will you do me a favor --- will you please vote in the next election? 40% of eligible U.S. voters did not cast a vote in the last election! My hope for America is that this lost 40% is where our national moral integrity is residing, and that they can be seduced away from their television sets long enough to tilt this country dramatically toward a caring society.
Hey, I can dream, can't I?
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
More tears for New Orleans
I spent three years in New Orleans, and I am in love with the city. I am devastated that it will never be exactly as I remember it. But if New Orleans must change, lets change it for the better.
For all of its native creative greatness, this city has very serious and very deep cultural and racial problems. Corruption in government and law enforcement is sideshow entertainment in the minds of far too many citizens.
Here is the latest example. New Orleans police blow away a man yielding a knife, despite outnumbering him several to one. The situation was under control. The police were white, the man was black. Why not shoot him in the leg? Why not use a taser? Why? Well, I guess its just easier to blow him away.
For all of its native creative greatness, this city has very serious and very deep cultural and racial problems. Corruption in government and law enforcement is sideshow entertainment in the minds of far too many citizens.
Here is the latest example. New Orleans police blow away a man yielding a knife, despite outnumbering him several to one. The situation was under control. The police were white, the man was black. Why not shoot him in the leg? Why not use a taser? Why? Well, I guess its just easier to blow him away.
Being a Better Dad
I can't imagine a pain any worse than losing a child.
Just before Christmas, our friends lost their eldest adult daughter in a car accident in Minneapolis. Only days before the accident, our friends had driven down to have dinner with her. Our friends are good people, hard working, loving, caring -- the sort of people you would want as a friend or a parent. I went to their house to listen to the father (in these situations, I find that I almost never have any thing to "say" to the grieving parent, but that I'm a good listener). He told me that he could take solace in knowing that his daughter was happy right up to the end, and that he was blessed to be able to know her and protect her for her entire life. His strength and faith fill me with wonder and admiration.
Less close to home, I felt sadness and pain to learn of the suicide death of Coach Tony Dungy's son. Tony Dungy is another man that I admire and am inspired by for his consistently unselfish actions. On television, he expressed joy in knowning that his son had accepted Christ and was now safe in God's eternal embrace.
The experiences of these two families at such a joyous time of the year motivated me to try and become a better a father. I remembered that Tony Dungy was a spokesman for AllProDad.com. I visited their website and signed up for their free newsletter. AllProDad is a great site with wonderful free resources available for improving fathers, such as 10 ways to be a better dad.
If you're a father, I encourage you to check out AllProDad.com. It's a wonderful way to honor your own father, Tony Dungy, and ultimately your family will thank you for it.
Just before Christmas, our friends lost their eldest adult daughter in a car accident in Minneapolis. Only days before the accident, our friends had driven down to have dinner with her. Our friends are good people, hard working, loving, caring -- the sort of people you would want as a friend or a parent. I went to their house to listen to the father (in these situations, I find that I almost never have any thing to "say" to the grieving parent, but that I'm a good listener). He told me that he could take solace in knowing that his daughter was happy right up to the end, and that he was blessed to be able to know her and protect her for her entire life. His strength and faith fill me with wonder and admiration.
Less close to home, I felt sadness and pain to learn of the suicide death of Coach Tony Dungy's son. Tony Dungy is another man that I admire and am inspired by for his consistently unselfish actions. On television, he expressed joy in knowning that his son had accepted Christ and was now safe in God's eternal embrace.
The experiences of these two families at such a joyous time of the year motivated me to try and become a better a father. I remembered that Tony Dungy was a spokesman for AllProDad.com. I visited their website and signed up for their free newsletter. AllProDad is a great site with wonderful free resources available for improving fathers, such as 10 ways to be a better dad.
If you're a father, I encourage you to check out AllProDad.com. It's a wonderful way to honor your own father, Tony Dungy, and ultimately your family will thank you for it.
Monday, December 26, 2005
Bush Tries to Intimidate News Editors
President Bush has been summoning newspaper editors lately in an effort to prevent publication of stories he considers damaging to national security.
Read it for yourself in the Washington Post.
Did I miss a meeting? Who elected Bush King?
Read it for yourself in the Washington Post.
Did I miss a meeting? Who elected Bush King?
Sunday, December 25, 2005
Merry Xmas, Christian revolutionaries!
In our house, we have 2 Christmases.
The first, which I call "Xmas", is secular. It's about getting lots of presents and recognizing each other's interests by slathering unnecessary gifts on each other.
The second is "Christmas," and Jane and I try hard to make it about Jesus. It's hard though, for Jesus to compete for the attention of a 4 year old girl who just opened her Polly Pockets. She'd rather stay at home and play than get dressed up for Church.
This morning the kids were up before 6 am (on a school day I can't get them up before 7 am even if the hosue is on fire). They couldn't wait to see what Santa brought them. They tore through the Santa gifts and the parental-gifts in about 5 minutes! A new family record!
I have mixed feelings about this present-thing.
It's hard to get away from it, I guess -- we feel that we have to do the secular Santa Claus Christmas, because you're overwhelmed by it. Society sets the expectation and the kids will feel cheated if I don't do it. There's no escape from the "Happy Holidays" in these United States. It's blatant economy-stoaking-"Made-in-China"-consumerism, which inevitably only buys a few minutes of happiness before the toys break, or a tiny piece gets lost rendering the entire toy useless, or the kids realize they didn't get everything they asked for. Pete (age 2) is still at the age where the cardboard box is more interesting than the Little People choo-choo that came inside it.
Note to self: Next Christmas, everyone gets a cardboard box and the money goes to the poor.
Christians should band together and decide to give their gifts on Epiphany. That's they day we celebrate the Magi bringing gifts to baby Jesus. Besides, we could all take advantage of the after-Christmas sales and probably save 25% on Christmas presents. Doing this would also allow us to focus on the meaning of Christs birth on Christmas day. Are there any fellow Christian revolutionaries out there who will join me?
New Years Resolution: to launch a Christian backlash against Xmas consumerism and move present opening to Epiphany. Should be a piece of cake, right? Please let everyone know.
Merry Christmas!
The first, which I call "Xmas", is secular. It's about getting lots of presents and recognizing each other's interests by slathering unnecessary gifts on each other.
The second is "Christmas," and Jane and I try hard to make it about Jesus. It's hard though, for Jesus to compete for the attention of a 4 year old girl who just opened her Polly Pockets. She'd rather stay at home and play than get dressed up for Church.
This morning the kids were up before 6 am (on a school day I can't get them up before 7 am even if the hosue is on fire). They couldn't wait to see what Santa brought them. They tore through the Santa gifts and the parental-gifts in about 5 minutes! A new family record!
I have mixed feelings about this present-thing.
It's hard to get away from it, I guess -- we feel that we have to do the secular Santa Claus Christmas, because you're overwhelmed by it. Society sets the expectation and the kids will feel cheated if I don't do it. There's no escape from the "Happy Holidays" in these United States. It's blatant economy-stoaking-"Made-in-China"-consumerism, which inevitably only buys a few minutes of happiness before the toys break, or a tiny piece gets lost rendering the entire toy useless, or the kids realize they didn't get everything they asked for. Pete (age 2) is still at the age where the cardboard box is more interesting than the Little People choo-choo that came inside it.
Note to self: Next Christmas, everyone gets a cardboard box and the money goes to the poor.
Christians should band together and decide to give their gifts on Epiphany. That's they day we celebrate the Magi bringing gifts to baby Jesus. Besides, we could all take advantage of the after-Christmas sales and probably save 25% on Christmas presents. Doing this would also allow us to focus on the meaning of Christs birth on Christmas day. Are there any fellow Christian revolutionaries out there who will join me?
New Years Resolution: to launch a Christian backlash against Xmas consumerism and move present opening to Epiphany. Should be a piece of cake, right? Please let everyone know.
Merry Christmas!
Monday, December 19, 2005
King George Holds Court
Last night King George decided to grace his subjects with royal presence. Bush held his first Oval Office address to the American people in nearly 3 years, during which time he did not even mention the furor created by his authorizing the NSA to spy on the American people.
With three more years to make bumbling mistakes, boners, King George has a real opportunity to go down in history as the worst president of modern times, a failure, the most miserable failure of a president, perhaps for all time. This is a distinction that previously held by Bill "Where's the Party" Clinton. But the difference here is that least Clinton upheld the constitution of the United States and at least feigned concern about the environment.
With three more years to make bumbling mistakes, boners, King George has a real opportunity to go down in history as the worst president of modern times, a failure, the most miserable failure of a president, perhaps for all time. This is a distinction that previously held by Bill "Where's the Party" Clinton. But the difference here is that least Clinton upheld the constitution of the United States and at least feigned concern about the environment.
Sunday, December 18, 2005
Welcome to Amerika
Is the America are we building better or even the same as the one that was worth defending on September 11, 2001?
Before Sept. 11, people were presumed innocent until proven guilty.
Now we lock people up for years without any charges.
Before Sept. 11, a person's home was their castle. Domestic spying was unheard of.
Now the President of the United States, the leader most entrusted with preserving and protecting the constitution of the USA, authorizes intelligence agencies to spy on its citizens.
Before Sept. 11, there was not a "Patriot Act," its very name Orwellian Doublespeak, which allowed warrantless "sneak a peak" inspections of a person's library records.
Now we're told that we just need to get used to having less privacy.
Before Sept. 11, secret prison and exporting prisoners to be tortured, and Abu-Gharid style humiliation of human beings, was abhorrant. Now its virtually accepted modus operandi.
Before Sept. 11, America wasn't even close to being $8 trillion in debt. Now its becoming clear that our fiscal mismanagement will cost us very dearly, very soon.
Before Sept. 11, the right to privacy was a presumption that required no defense. Increasingly, we now hearing that we shouldn't worry about invasions of privacy if we have nothing to hide.
- You don't want me looking at your library record -- what are you trying to hide?
- You don't want me looking at your home videos? What you got to hide?
- You don't want me seeing who you've been calling on the telephone, mining your credit card purchasing habits, profiling your websurfing routines, looking at your tax form, reading your email, opening your postal mail? Then you must have something to hide!
America may be "more safe" today than it was on Sept. 12, but it is certainly "less American."
Each day I seem to be presented with more and more evidence that America has been hijacked by the right wing, who feel that they are justified in all that they do, so long as it is done in the name of security.
I am not willing to trade my freedoms away for security. Nor will I quietly allow the United States government to continue perpetrating attrocities in my name.
If America was worth preserving and defending, a value-less police state (Amerika) that can only be sustained through torture, secrecy and the systematic violation of the rights of its populace is certainly not worth preserving.
I long for the presumption of privacy and personal liberties that I enjoyed before 9/11. Where has my America gone?
The next election will perhaps be the most important EVER IN OUR NATION's HISTORY for retaining the presumption of our privacy rights.
Welcome to the new Amerika. It's just what the terrorists had in mind.
Before Sept. 11, people were presumed innocent until proven guilty.
Now we lock people up for years without any charges.
Before Sept. 11, a person's home was their castle. Domestic spying was unheard of.
Now the President of the United States, the leader most entrusted with preserving and protecting the constitution of the USA, authorizes intelligence agencies to spy on its citizens.
Before Sept. 11, there was not a "Patriot Act," its very name Orwellian Doublespeak, which allowed warrantless "sneak a peak" inspections of a person's library records.
Now we're told that we just need to get used to having less privacy.
Before Sept. 11, secret prison and exporting prisoners to be tortured, and Abu-Gharid style humiliation of human beings, was abhorrant. Now its virtually accepted modus operandi.
Before Sept. 11, America wasn't even close to being $8 trillion in debt. Now its becoming clear that our fiscal mismanagement will cost us very dearly, very soon.
Before Sept. 11, the right to privacy was a presumption that required no defense. Increasingly, we now hearing that we shouldn't worry about invasions of privacy if we have nothing to hide.
- You don't want me looking at your library record -- what are you trying to hide?
- You don't want me looking at your home videos? What you got to hide?
- You don't want me seeing who you've been calling on the telephone, mining your credit card purchasing habits, profiling your websurfing routines, looking at your tax form, reading your email, opening your postal mail? Then you must have something to hide!
America may be "more safe" today than it was on Sept. 12, but it is certainly "less American."
Each day I seem to be presented with more and more evidence that America has been hijacked by the right wing, who feel that they are justified in all that they do, so long as it is done in the name of security.
I am not willing to trade my freedoms away for security. Nor will I quietly allow the United States government to continue perpetrating attrocities in my name.
If America was worth preserving and defending, a value-less police state (Amerika) that can only be sustained through torture, secrecy and the systematic violation of the rights of its populace is certainly not worth preserving.
I long for the presumption of privacy and personal liberties that I enjoyed before 9/11. Where has my America gone?
The next election will perhaps be the most important EVER IN OUR NATION's HISTORY for retaining the presumption of our privacy rights.
Welcome to the new Amerika. It's just what the terrorists had in mind.
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